It's an exciting time for the solar industry. Deployment is up sharply — photovoltaics (PV) alone have seen 73 percent annual growth, on average, from 2000 through 2012, and costs are down dramatically over that same period. And now, storage technologies are poised for similar growth and cost-reduction trajectories as many new competitors enter the market. Lux Research, for example, projects that storage technologies integrated with solar will grow from a market of less than $100 million in 2013 to close to $2 billion by 2018.
Historically, renewable energy financing has predominantly come from major banks and other limited sources of tax equity. In previous posts, I've mentioned the need to broaden the sources of capital, including pension funds and other institutional investors. To do so, projects need to be standardized to reduce development and operating risk and enable the creation of portfolios that can be securitized, thus allowing ownership shares to be easily procured, traded, and priced by the market. NREL is helping the industry meet that goal by developing standard contracts, engaging the rating agencies on risk perception, and building consensus on best installation and operation and maintenance (O&M) practices.
Recent articles have described the central utility model as a downward cycle whereby solar and other "disruptive technologies" eat into utility market share causing utilities to raise rates, which amplifies the loss of market share. Interestingly, as the industry changes around them, investor-owned utilities (IOUs) remain largely un-invested in solar deployment or emerging storage technologies. In my mind, that's a real lost opportunity because:
- Utilities have access to very low-cost capital
- Utilities need capital investment to ensure healthy returns to their shareholders
- Distributed generation and storage assets — especially in combination — can provide the grid valuable resiliency in the wake of storms and other natural disasters.
- The complex financial structures applied to capitalizing renewable energy assets require very specific expertise;
- Concerns that solar remains uneconomic compared to traditional generation technologies;
- The fear of market dominance or self-selection by utilities, causing regulators to preclude them from generation asset ownership in their restructured service territories or otherwise from solar investment;
- "Normalization" accounting rules that require tax benefits spread over the asset life, which appears to favor non-utility investment.
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